The Leading Economic Index jumped

The Leading Economic Index (LEI) jumped 0.3% in March, after being up 0.7% in February and 0.8% in January. This index shows a picture of future economic health. This shows little reason to expect a recession over the next 12 months. Year over year, this index is up +6.2%, well above the negative year-over-year signal…

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The yield curve continues to flatten

The Federal Reserve released its latest Beige Book. It showed continued to report steady growth overall. Trade concerns were starting to pop up, including rising steel costs. Labor market tightness continued to be an issue, especially for highly skilled workers, but wage and price pressures remained limited. (LPL) China continued buying Treasuries in February. Some…

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Earnings roll in

Hillsboro based Phoseon Technology, maker of semiconductor light for industrial applications, will expand its factory by more than 50%. Their work force has grown from 125 to 175 over the past two years. (OregonLive) Market breadth appears to be in favor of the bulls. There are signs that the 2018 bottom for U.S. equities has…

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Extra innings for tax filing

Gross domestic product (GDP) in China rose +6.8% in the first quarter. (AP) China’s central bank announced a surprise cut in bank reserve requirements, reducing the amount of cash most commercial and foreign banks must hold in order to pay back loans obtained via the central bank’s medium-term lending facility. The move is intended to…

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It’s Tax Day!

Earnings season kicks into high gear this week with about 15% of the S&P 500 reporting. Consensus expects S&P 500 earnings to increase 18% year over year, with increases in all 11 S&P sectors. Stocks tend to hold up well when military actions are contained. Historically, market reactions to contained military conflicts have tended to…

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A new week – earnings in focus

Money was outflowing from stock mutual funds and ETFs three weeks in a row (according to ICI data). Last time we saw that was right before the US election in 2016. Could this be a piece of sentiment that is flashing an extreme reading? AAII says its survey shows stock market bears are at their…

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